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Betting Strategies
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Betting Strategies: Top 5 strategies to adopt when you're looking to have a punt.
With so many factors to take into consideration before having a punt on the races, it can often become overwhelming for the casual or time-poor punter to get his (or her) head around.
While reading the comments from a form analyst in the Best Bets is always a safe fall back, there are other, more effective ways to work out not only which horse to bet on, but how to bet in each race.
Here are five betting strategies to consider the next time you're looking to have a flutter on a Saturday afternoon.
Trials & Maidens
Even though most punters don't put much stock in trial form, it can be one of the most telling factors when assessing a horse's chance of winning, especially when it comes to betting in maiden races.
Typically in maidens, the form is full of runs where the horse has failed to get the distance. This is where trial form comes in handy.
It's important to not only see where the horse finished in the trial, but how it ran. That is, whether it was giving tooth and nail to get to the line, or if the jockey still had plenty of horse under them as they eased their mount to the line.
When horses have good trial results, yet didn't seem to expend much energy to get to the line, it's a good indication that they are set for a huge run come race day.
Horse Fitness
Probably the most important factor to assess- especially when it comes to staying races- is whether the horse is at optimal fitness to run out the distance and win the race.
There is no general rule or formula to determine a horse's fitness, as like people, each animal is different and reaches peak fitness at different times and for different lengths of time.
However, that's not to say that you can't get an indication of how the horse is traveling. A good strategy is to look at not only past runs, but past campaigns.
While most horses tend to peak third or fourth run back after a spell, some horses can take longer or perhaps even fewer runs to reach their optimal fitness.
By looking at the results as well the quality of the run in previous campaign, you can usually judge if the horse is ready to run another good race in a corresponding start after a spell.
This is because horse trainers tend to follow a winning pattern by mirroring a horse's preparation.
For example, if Horse X's four results after a spell in its last preparation were eighth, tenth, sixth then first, you could typically say that Horse X reaches peak fitness four runs into its campaign.
Contrast this with Horse Y, whose four results after a spell were fourth, first, fifth then eighth. Horse Y reached its peak second-up after a spell, but then faded away shortly after.
Betting on Multiple Horses in a Race
This is a good betting strategy to employ, as while there is less potential return, the chances of winning are far greater.
The key to betting on multiple horses in a race is to pick a few horses with a good spread in odds. Then, bet on each horse with an amount that will return the same amount of profit, no matter which of your selections is first past the post.
Picking horses which represent good value as well as the favourites who are more likely to win is important, as it ensures a healthy profit.
When it comes to the ideal number of horses you should bet on in each race, there is no standard. However, a rough guide is somewhere between 20% and 30% of the field.
In a ten-horse race, this would equate to two or three selections, while in a 24 horse race like the Melbourne Cup, it would mean taking five to seven selections.
With more margin for error, many punters prefer to spread their outlay across several horses, which over time should yields greater results.
This strategy can also be benefitial when attempting to take advantage of
betting promotions, as they often provide money back refunds when your horse comes second or third.
Follow the Pro's
Of course, casual punters can only do so much. There are professional punters who dedicate hours and hours of their time each week to analyse form, including factors such as barrier influence, race track traits and speed maps.
Many of these expert tipsters are media personalities and well respected journalists, and others prefer to shy away from the spotlight and stick to what they do best- backing winners.
For those who subscribe to the school of thought that listening to the experts in each field is the way to go and are happy to trust their cash or
bonus bets with someone in the know, following professional punters is the avenue for you.
These tipsters often provide
free horse racing tips which can be accessed by all, and some of them have subscription based tipping services which are available for purchase.
Be sure to do your homework on the tipster and note that one bad Saturday doesn't mean he's a dud. Look at his lifetime betting performance for a proper insight.
Staking Plans
In layman's terms, staking is just increasing or decreasing your normal stake depending on your confidence for each bet.
Most punters do this regularly, unaware that they are actually implementing a staking plan.
However, where this strategy can become more useful is when following a professional punters'
horse racing tips.
They will typically convey their tips in 'units', with each unit representing a fixed number of money depending on the punter's preference.
For example, a tipster might recommend a horse in Race 3 for
Saturday Racing with 5 units, but another horse in the very same race with 15 units.
This means that they are more confident about the second horse, and are suggesting that you should put three times as much money on it than the first horse.
Some tipsters keep it simple and indicate confidence with the word low, medium or high next to their tip.
No matter how tipsters convey their confidence and staking plan, it can be a fruitful strategy to employ.
And you can now read even more
professional punting articles here.
Best Regards,
Mike Keenan, Bill MacDonald and the team at Horse Racing Tips Australia.
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