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Punting Questions and Answers
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How To Win Punting On Horse Racing Questions & Answers.
Please read the information located on the
Ratings Help Page and in the articles provided on this website which you can find in the
Professional Punting Articles section for the background to all of this information below.
The following is a series of punting questions asked via email about this website and the horse racing tips and ratings we provide on it which may be of real benefit to you. Knowledge is absolute and asking questions is the step by which we learn to gain this absolute knowledge and I hope that these series of emails helps you in your quest for this punting knowledge and helps you gain a real understanding of how you can more strategically bet on horse racing.
Consistency is the key to winning. If you like betting for the Win then you will like what you see on our website as the strike rate on average for our Top 2 Selections is 50% of all races run each day and if you like dutch betting you can download free staking software from
Winning More right here at
free dutch betting software which you can use in conjunction with our tips each day. With our website we also recommend using a
staking plan like the
money factory from
Garry Robinson.
Here is what a normal person would do.
Bet 5% of your bank.
Back the top 2 selections
Set a goal say to win $50 for the day.
Reach goal and then pull out and come back the next day.
A Great Tip: A really sensible approach would be to go through the early bookmaker prices for the Top 2 Selections when our tips are first posted for you each day and then search out those races which represent value and bet from there. It is advisable to ignore those races which contain odds-on favorites the type of races which represent little or no value. You will find that generally the bookmaker prices you will see early will be the best prices available as generally the prices for our selections will shorten in odds over the course of the day.
If you want to find out even more helpful techniques and strategies you can read our
ratings help guide here.
Best Regards,
Mike Keenan, Bill MacDonald and the team at Horse Racing Tips Australia.
Received email.
Hi Mike
Struggling a bit with a few things. Hopefully you can help me out with my 4 questions below.
Great EXACTA result in Adelaide race one on Saturday however I missed it and then betting later in the day struggled. Sunday I stopped after a few races having been behind $60 for the day which is my STOP figure( 5 races without result). I know my problem, betting on to many races however as a newbie having difficulty in selecting appropriate races. Looking exclusively at the Exacta bet type.
1. Race size. Do you only bet into 5-7 horse fields if one or more of the selections are not in the top few favourites? Or do you leave 7 or less runners alone?
Is 8-10 size fields the 'sweet spot"' for the Exacta with four selections?
2. In fields of 12 or more do you box for a full or go 1/2? Do you put 'saver' bets on the bigger fields in case one of the selections run first or second eg 1 2 3 4 / A B C $3 or A B C / 1 2 3 4 $3 for a 25% return. A B C being other horses outside selections.
3. Is there a market trigger not to bet on a race?
1 2 3 4 - top four in the market? No value? Maybe 1 / 3 4 or 3 4 / 1 would be ok? 3 & 4 being longer priced horses.
It seems (and is logical) that the longer priced runners in the top four selections return the dividends required to achieve profit and STOP for the day in profit.
1 2 / 1234 1 & 2 seem to be favourites in a big number of races which helps the high strike rate but is poor value. Your example of 1/ 234 x 5 I seem to struggle with and not identify where it works? How short the favourite? Odds on only?
4. Pool size. Some very small pools on Sunday $500 or less. Is this ok?
I know each race is different and an essay is required to explain all the possible factors just looking for a few hard and fast DO'S & DON"TS so I don't try to bet into every race.
My plan after the weekend is roughly the below option that I unsure which to move forward with. The race selection is my problem not sure which ones to pass on. I have read your 'how to' guide many many times and just can't see how 12 / 1234, 1 / 234 (short priced) gets their long term unless the selections bigger priced runners get home. You can go all day and not get the higher priced horse home just picking up small positive results but not recovering losses and getting to profit. This means I need to pass on some races and wait for value or put saver bets in chasing a 'recovery' dividend. This is not a criticism of you or the selections just a confused observation from a newbie and feel I'm obviously missing something.
8 Horse race and up
1 2 3 4 Box 1/2 $6
1 2 3 4 / A B C $3 25% (A B C horses in the market but outside the selections)
A B C / 1 2 3 4 $3 25%
I am thinking (hoping) this approach would capture extra returns and as from the results the strike rate for one of the selections to finish 1st or 2nd is very high but missed the exacta. A B C may pick up some good dividends if the selections are mid priced in the market.
Thanks for you on going assistance.
Doug
Sent email:
Hi Doug sorry I have not written earlier normally I am straight onto these things but I have not been myself the past few days with my mind elsewhere but back in the game this morning.
With the website the reason its not a roaring success and I ran the figures with a new update we have 263 members and that's out of a population in Australia of over 2 million regular punters and the website gets a lot of visitors over the year around 200,000 but the join rate is so low and its for a very good reason as my website requires imagination and critical thinking which a lot of people are not willing to do as they like to be directed and told exactly what to do. I got caught in this mindset for a period of 5 years and lost focus and did not have the ability to problem solve but eventually I caught on that something was wrong and I managed to fix it. You should have seen the website when it was first created 4 years ago it was a mess and was the perfect reflection of my mind, it was disorganized and horrible.
Think outside the box, be creative and work to problem solve and I will help you.
With the website there are 4 numbers in there order of preference and its your task to use those numbers in a sequence that gives you on a higher probability to win.
With the questions.
With small fields say 7 runners normally there is a short priced runner say $2.50 or shorter in this circumstance I would banker that runner and take the other 3 selections. So its 1 / 2, 3, 4 and I would take it for $5 so $15 total outlay. With bigger sized fields say 10 runners upwards I would banker 2 selections so 1, 2 / 1, 2, 3, 4 or if the runners are all at a good price I might box the four runners for $12 so I get the dividend for 100%
What I would recommend as you are just starting out with this method is go through the tips when they are available and find those races with all of the odds on favorites as top selections and just banker all of those runners and they are the only bets you have for the day. This is a way to coax out a profit for the day in the old timers speak it is called grinding. Grinding is just waiting for the races to come along that you know you have a greater chance of getting but its about patience.
Also importantly the 5 special selections of the day at the top of the page are the best selections of the day and you might just like to try these as I personally think and put them there at the top of the page because I think they will win.
With races I would not bet are when the favorite is paying say $2.50 and the 2nd favorite is paying $3.50 and the 3rd favorite is paying say $5.00 as these are bad value races and will not pay anything and only addicts will bet on these races. If you are a win bettor then this race may be a great opportunity but if you are an exotics player avoid these races like the plague. If you ever feel like a race presents no value then ignore it absolutely and wait for the next race to see if better value presents and if there's not ignore it and move to the next and if it represents value in your mind then bet.
With pool sizes I would not be scared to bet into a $500 pool as long as I am not spending much on the race,. If I bet $12 I know that if it wins and pays it will normally pay out at a fair rate as seen by the QLD tab, but if I bet $100 into the pool then I am basically betting against myself which is never a good idea.
Added on Saturday the 30th of June 2018:
We now tell you which races are best to bet as we have introduced
Key Notes to the website which outline each races best possibility of winning at a simple glance.
So for example:
Key Notes:
(*) Denotes "Special" so the Top Selection should really win.
(P) Denotes "Predictable" so overall race has a Higher Probability of success within the given 4 selections.
(O) Denotes an "Open" Race with many possibilities so Uncertain Of Outcome within selections.
Ipswich Race Tips:
Race 1: (*) 5, 4, 1, 3 - Winner (1) $1.30 Exacta $2.10 Trifecta $5.10 First 4 $5.60
Race 2: (*) 4, 2, 8, 7 - Winner (1) $1.50
Race 3: (P) 9, 1, 4, 6 - Winner (2) $4.90 Exacta $61.10 Trifecta $199.90 First 4 $812.60
How to understand the results information on the website: After the winner result you will see a number for example Winner (1) $5.30 the (1) represents the winner came from the first tip in the sequence. So (2) will represent tip 2, (3) tip 3 and (4) tip 4. This information is given to help people clearly see which horse in the tips sequence actually won and it is then followed by the exacta, trifecta, first 4 and quadrella results information if we have tipped it correctly within the selections given and the prices shown are from the QLD TAB.
I hope this helps and I hope I have answered every question. Its hard to explain this as I know it as I have been looking at totalisator screens since I was 6 so it has become second nature. Be assured however I myself do not win all of the time but I have the ability to be able to pick the races which give me the greater chance of a collect and races which actually pay out at a decent dividend to help get to my goal of the day.
Take my advice and play the suggested bets of the day and play the odds on favorites in the tips if the next 3 selections provided are at a decent price quote.
I would also highly recommend taking a dry run, so just doing a pretend bet on races you think are of value to get a hang of it all.
I enjoy writing to you Doug it keeps me fresh and I am always here to help and hopefully I can help you get to the winning path. My advice as I mentioned at the beginning of this email was thinking outside of the box, when you bet, bet with your heart and if you feel a race is not a good idea then let it go. Be flexible in your approach with experience so that if you think yes the exacta is not a good value proposition then the trifecta maybe or the first 4 maybe or the win bet maybe. This comes however with experience.
I can see by the way you are betting you have a plan which is perfect, always use money management and stick to it. Have your goal say $20 and bet to get it and then if you get it run for the hills as greed will kill you in this game and the longer you bet the greater your chance of you losing.
I should write a book about this whole subject I could just keep writing and writing in a never-ending fashion and I can see clearly you want to learn which is excellent as asking questions is how you learn even more and grow. Sadly a large majority of people don't ask questions they just do what there told and this inflexibility is the reason we live in such a cruel, mindless and suffering world but this is a whole new topic.
Anything you need I am here and if ever you want to give me a call my number is 0746344012.
Cheers Doug and may everything just click right into place and its smooth sailing from here on in.
Mike.
Received email:
Hi Mike
Appreciate the email with detail.
Yes since finding your site mid last week I have been trying to think out of the square to devise a way to make use of the excellent strike rate. I think you 1 / 234 x 3 or 5 with the short priced horse in small fields should be my target to cut down on trying to cover everything. Might just do the selected exacta as well. I have put a few dollars on the best bet of the day win or place on Betfair and had a few wins as well.
Just keep looking at the longer priced horses $10 + in the four eelctections and don't want to miss them as that's when that juicy $100 + div comes along.
The other very interesting thing is many times the top four selections will be placed 1st or 2nd in every race of the day but missing the exacta. Many clean sweeps when you go through the records. Just capturing the other horse with out doing to many combinations is the key. I have attempted that in the below ideas.
Do you every just leave out the short horses in the 4 selections and just use the longer priced ones?
Example 1- $2.10
2 - $3.30
3- $9
4 - $12
So don't include any multiple combination that has 1 / 2 2/1 included so 3 4 / 1 2 3 4 1 2 / 3 4
Below is my attempt and thinking outside the box.
Any comments would be appreciated. This was completed before your email so taking the simple option of just doing the Odds on with the three other selections is the go. Below would be me punting on each race until profit was achieved. The extra multiples chasing a constant collect.
thanks again for your help
Doug
12 or more Horses
1 2 3 4 Box ½ $6
1 2 3 4 / A B C $3 25 % - 12 combinations
A B C / 1 2 3 4 $3 25 %
(3 extra selections A B C can include 2ndFav. in the market)
7 - 11 Horses
1. Selection is Odds On
2 3 4 / 1 $3
1 / 2 3 4 $3
2 3 4 A B C Box $6 20%
If one selection is 2ndin market delete it and add A
2. Selections have 1st 2nd & 3rdFav.
4 / 1 2 3 $3
1 2 3 / 4 $3
1 2 3 4 / A B C $4 33.33%
A B C / 1 2 3 4 $2 16.66%
3. Selections have 1stFav. others 3 outside top 2
1 2 3 4 Box $8 66%
A B / 1 2 3 4 $2 25%
1 2 3 4 / A B $2
4. Selections have 1st& 2nd Fav.
3 4 / 1 2 3 4 $6
1 2 / 3 4 $4
1 2 3 4 / A B C $2 16.66%
5. Market favourite not in selections
1 / 2 / 3/ 4 Box $8 66%
A B / 1 2 3 4 (A & B Fav.) $2 25%
1 2 3 4 / A B $2
5 & 6 Horses - Just bet on selections that are outside top 3 in the market
4 / 1 2 3 $3 or 3 4 / 1 2 3 4 $6
Sent email:
Exactly with the short priced runners I do avoid them so if the prices are 1. $2.00 2. $3.00 3. $9.00 4. $15.00 then i will leave the favourite out for second like you have so 1, 2 for 1st / 3, 4 for 2nd. This is the flexibility I was talking about seeing the prices and going for the value. Sure you won't win every-time but when you do win its usually enough to get you to target or on the way to your target. I also do if the top selections are short say for example 1. $2.00 and 2. $3.00 I will add in the other selections plus slip in other runners in the race which are of value so for example 1, 2 / 3, 4, 6, 8, 5, 7 just grinding out for a win. It's all about that flexibility and being able to see potential value. The trick is to stay away from those races which you feel offer zero value. Sounds to me like you are a grinder and I am happy to be called a grinder its a badge of honour its about patience and putting the odds more into your favour. Slow and steady wins the race, but it does get boring because it requires time that is the main obstacle but you have to maintain with that sense of vision for the final result you want to achieve. Discipline a horrible word but a truthful one which we all need to master.
Best Regards,
Mike Keenan, Bill MacDonald and the team at Horse Racing Tips Australia.
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