Horse Racing Tips Australia
Six Keys To Punting Success
Six Keys To Punting Success - Part 1
Most punters have a very selective memory. They tend to recall all the good wins but rarely discuss the many losses in between. Essentially if you are not recording your bets it’s because you don’t really want to face the fact that you are probably losing money. Here are some facts you need to consider if you are serious about making a profit and winning long-term.
(1) Unrealistic expectations
Expecting to win in excess of 15% on turnover long term on a high volume of bets is totally unrealistic. Argue the point as much as you like (as I did when I was in my 20’s) but it is a fact. Of course there will be periods when you will have big wins and exceed these limits, but there will also be other periods where you will lose. Expecting to make more than 20% on turnover would mean that you were (a) being very selective and not turning over many bets; or (b) delusional; or (c) one of the most successful punters the world has ever seen.
Few punters realise that as professional punters we actually operate on 10% or less POT and that some of Australia’s biggest and most high profile professionals make less than 5% on (albeit high) turnover. The difference in profit percentages isn’t because one punter is twice as good as the other, but more likely it is because the two are experiencing differing levels of variance and possibly betting on many more (or many fewer) events. Either way, the turnover is very high and that is where the dollars are made. Essentially 10-15% profit on turnover is achievable and realistic with a disciplined and methodical approach to your punting.
So the reality is if you are making 10% POT and want to profit $25,000 per year, then you need to turn over a minimum of $250,000 per year. If you bet say five days per week then your will need to turn over approximately $1000 per day.
In following weeks we will discuss five other key factors in becoming a long-term winner: (2) You will experience losing periods (3) Probability will affect your bank (4) Understanding market percentages (5) Discipline is the key (6) Betting with ratings
About the author: David Duffield provides horse racing tips, ratings, lay betting and sports tips that will help you turn into a winning punter.
Six Keys To Punting Success - Part 2
Last week I discussed having realistic expectations in terms of profit and profit on turnover. Today I want to emphasise the fact that you will have losing runs.
Probability has an effect on all things in daily life. Even the best judges should expect and will experience losing runs over any reasonable length of time.
To be a proficient punter it is essential that you can calculate the chance each runner has of winning and then betting only when you receive odds equal to or greater than the calculated chance. However unlike table games where the odds can be calculated exactly, the odds or percentage chance of a horse winning is not exact or objective and that is why methodical data and ratings need to be kept and adjusted on a daily and weekly basis.
There are a number of factors involved in analysing the form and the subjective nature of this analysis means that opinions are often quite different. But the principle doesn’t ever change and that is if you don’t do markets how can you possibly know the winning chance of each horse? Furthermore, backing horses (even winners) at ‘unders’ will see you lose in the long term – that is a certainty.
A simple but pertinent example is a coin toss. Since the true odds of a head or tail is $2.00, this means it is certain that if you take less than $2.00 you will lose in the long term. If you take odds of exactly $2.00 you will break-even. If you are offered say $2.20 and you accept that as a bet (as you should) you will win 10% on turnover long term.
Although you are getting value by getting $2.20, you might still lose 10, 15 or even 20 times in a row. So despite the fact that you have bet sensibly and are getting value, you can still be losing in the short term and this is due to variance and probability. However over time if you consistently repeat the bet you will become a long-term winner.
Now, unfortunately the scenario most punters put themselves in is the opposite of the $2.20 example above. Instead they accept $2.00 or less and don’t understand how market percentages, probability and variance all work. The very best (and probably highly optimistic) result for this type of punter long term is that he breaks even. A much more likely scenario for this style of punter is that they are headed for the poorhouse. Why? Because they accept a price that is less than the true odds of that horse. And when they are in front, they double up their bets. When they are behind, they double up or possibly halve their bet. When they have a few beers they quadruple their bet. When their mate knows the owner or the jockey they have ten times their normal bet.
Short-term some will experience the occasional big win and many will experience big losses. But an undeniable fact is that long-term every single one of these punters will lose.
This series will continue in coming weeks with the following topics: (3) Probability will affect your bank (4) Understanding market percentages (5) Discipline is the key (6) Betting with ratings
About the author: David Duffield provides horse racing tips, ratings, lay betting and sports tips that will help you turn into a winning punter.
Six Keys To Punting Success - Part 3
In the first week of this series I discussed having realistic expectations in terms of profit on turnover. Last week I tried to emphasise the fact that you will have losing runs. Today I want to stress that probability will effect your bank.
No matter what you do or how hard you work, how good your information, opinion or judgement is, the laws of probability will effect you.
Successful betting is about maximising your profits while protecting your betting capital and confidence so that you can continue when faced with a significant losing period. The only way you can do this is by getting your bet size right. If you bet too much on each selection then a normally expected losing run could send you broke. If you don’t bet enough then your risk will always be below the level you could actually tolerate and you won’t make as much with your betting capital.
Much has been written on staking and all of us have read those ridiculous articles on double up theories, running two separate banks etc etc. Quite frankly these staking systems do not work and will send you broke.
Google the term ‘risk of ruin’ if you are serious about punting and want to get a grasp on the interrelationships between chance, strike rates, probability, losing/winning sequences and gain an understanding of how variance occurs and the effect it can have on your bank.
This series will continue in coming weeks with the following topics: (4) Understanding market percentages (5) Discipline is the key (6) Betting with ratings
About the author: David Duffield provides horse racing tips, ratings, lay betting and sports tips that will help you turn into a winning punter.
Six Keys To Punting Success - Part 4
This series of articles has already discussed realistic profit on turnover, losing runs and probability. Today I want to write about market percentages.
Punters today have a wide variety of opportunities to gain the best prices and by having access to Betfair, best tote products and bookmakers we have a luxury that wasn’t available to us 10 years ago. Betfair often operates as low as 101%, the totes at 118% and bookmakers at somewhere between 110% and 140%. But what does that all mean?
Odds Market % 1. $2.5 = 40.00% 2. $4.0 = 25.00% 3. $5.0 = 20.00% 4. $8.0 = 12.50% 5. $12 = 8.50% 6. $17 = 5.88% 7. $34 = 2.95% 8. $51 = 2.00% 9. $71 = 1.40% 10. $101 = 1.00% TOTAL 118%
The above odds typify a TAB market which operates at approximately 118%. This means that if you were to back each horse to collect $100 it would cost you $118. That is because the TAB deduct around 18% from the total pool before distributing the remainder between the total number of units bet on the winner.
Below is the same market at 110% 1. $ 2.80 2. $ 4.30 3. $ 5.50 4. $ 8.50 5. $14.00 6. $20.00 7. $34.00 8. $51.00 9. $71.00 10. $101.00
Below is the same market again, but this time at 101% 1. $3.00 2. $4.40 3. $6.00 4. $9.00 5. $15.00 6. $21.00 7. $41.00 8. $61.00 9. $71.00 10. $101.00
This series will continue in coming weeks with the following topics: (5) Discipline is the key (6) Betting with ratings
About the author: David Duffield provides horse racing tips, ratings, lay betting and sports tips that will help you turn into a winning punter.
Six Keys To Punting Success - Part 5
Previous articles in this series covered the following topics: (1) Unrealistic expectations (2) You will experience losing periods (3) Probability will affect your bank (4) Understanding market percentages. Today I want to talk about what I consider to be the key to successful punting and that is discipline.
We have all witnessed an emotional and excited lad commence a long and sustained run around the betting auditorium, screaming whilst whipping his thigh with a form guide as the conveyance he is on charges to the line in a close finish. In all likelihood this punter has either failed to back a winner for some time, has had a bet that is way out of proportion with his bank or means, or has bet the remainder of his bank and suddenly realises that there is a chance of being able to afford a cab home. It’s always amusing to watch, but we all know these types rarely win and certainly never win over any reasonable length of time.
There are two reasons for this. Firstly these types actually expect to lose and would prefer to start the day with $200 and go home with either $1500 or nothing. Others turnover their $200 starting bank three or four times throughout the day, find themselves with $250 approaching the last and either bet their whole bank or at least all of the day’s profit.
If you are serious about being successful you have to approach the day knowing that you have either done the work yourself or have purchased ratings that enable you to make confident betting decisions. Once you have an idea of the relative chance each runner has (and this is essential) all you need to do then is shop well in the marketplace and only back those horses which are value.
It’s really that simple. There will be losing days but if you can adopt this approach and cease chasing one day’s losses you can become a winner.
This series will conclude next week with the following topic: (6) Betting with ratings
About the author: David Duffield provides horse racing tips, ratings, lay betting and sports tips that will help you turn into a winning punter.
Six Keys To Punting Success - Part 6
In the final instalment in this series, today I will discuss betting with ratings. As a long-term professional punter this is obviously a subject I feel well qualified to talk about.
There are many ways to implement ratings and the approach you take really depends on the individual. If the rated markets are framed to a percentage of less than 100 (say 95%) it means is that if you were actually able to secure the rated price on each runner to collect $100 then you would be spending $95 and showing a profit of $5. If you secured overlays the profit margin will be even greater.
Of course it is most unlikely that you will experience a 95% market, even if you shopped particularly well securing the best prices offered amongst bookmakers, Betfair and best tote. In saying that, markets of less than 100% can occur very occasionally and when it does you are in a win/win situation for no matter what the result of the race is, you will make a profit.
In a normal 100%+ market you need to formulate a plan as to how you intend to invest into each race and that plan will differ from race to race. Let’s say in a particular event with nine runners the assessed chance of each horse (in a market framed to 95%) was as follows.
Assessed 95% Bet req’d to collect $100 Actual Market 1. $2.50 $40 $2.30 2. $4.00 $25 $4.50 3. $10.00 $10 $7.50 4. $12.00 $8.50 $16 4. $20.00 $5 $12 5. $25.00 $4 $16 6. $40.00 $2.50 $25 $95.00
In the above race the two horses that are over the odds are #2 and #4. One strategy would be to back them both to win a percentage of your starting bank, which for the sake of this exercise is $100. The bets would be $25 and $8.50 win on #2 and #4 respectively.
If #2 wins the collect will be $112.50 and if #4 wins $136.00. The area that many punters have difficulty understanding is that in a situation like the one above you should not be backing the top-rated horse. While it is assessed as having the best chance of winning the race, it is not a value bet at the available odds.
Rated at $2.50 it’s chance of winning is 40%, so over 100 races it is expected to salute 40 times. Taking unders at $2.30 will return only $92 per win x 100 races = $3680. The outlay of $40 x 100 races is $4000 so over a period of 100 races you can expect to lose $320.
Alternatively the chance of # 2 winning is 25% (calculated by dividing it’s rated price into 100). So over 100 races the outlay would be $25 x 100 = $2500. The return would be $112.50 x 25 which is $2812.50. This leaves a profit of $312.50 less the amount invested on # 4.
This is the principle behind obtaining value and it is no different to the example used of trying to get odds of more than $2 about a coin toss. Securing overs does not mean the horse will win, nor does it mean the horse has a better chance of winning. More importantly though, it means that in the long run you will win.
In the short-term you will experience losing bets and losing runs, but by combining a consistent staking plan with a disciplined approach you will end up with a positive result.
Previous articles in this series covered the following topics: (1) Unrealistic expectations (2) You will experience losing periods (3) Probability will affect your bank (4) Understanding market percentages (5) Discipline is the key
I hope you have found these articles helpful in some way and I am happy to field any questions at [email protected]
About the author: David Duffield provides horse racing tips, ratings, lay betting and sports tips that will help you turn into a winning punter.
And you can now read even more
professional punting articles here.
To learn more please visit
Horse Racing Tips. Horse Racing Tips Australia provides premium horse racing tips covering every race run in Australia everyday 365 days a year and you can find out more at
join us & become a premium member. You can access all our
Free Horse Racing Tips covering the 1st 3 races everywhere everyday 365 days a year directly at
Horse Racing Tips Australia Live
Best Regards,
Mike Keenan, Bill MacDonald and the team at Horse Racing Tips Australia.
Any Questions? Email us directly via the
Contact Us page.